Global lake thermal regions shift under climate change

Maberly, Stephen C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3541-5903; O’Donnell, Ruth A.; Woolway, R. Iestyn; Cutler, Mark E.J.; Gong, Mengyi ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7655-1675; Jones, Ian D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6898-1429; Merchant, Christopher J.; Miller, Claire A.; Politi, Eirini; Scott, E. Marian; Thackeray, Stephen J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3274-2706; Tyler, Andrew N.. 2020 Global lake thermal regions shift under climate change. Nature Communications, 11, 1232. 9, pp. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15108-z

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15108-z

Abstract/Summary

Water temperature is critical for the ecology of lakes. However, the ability to predict its spatial and seasonal variation is constrained by the lack of a thermal classification system. Here we define lake thermal regions using objective analysis of seasonal surface temperature dynamics from satellite observations. Nine lake thermal regions are identified that mapped robustly and largely contiguously globally, even for small lakes. The regions differed from other global patterns, and so provide unique information. Using a lake model forced by 21st century climate projections, we found that 12%, 27% and 66% of lakes will change to a lower latitude thermal region by 2080–2099 for low, medium and high greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5) respectively. Under the worst-case scenario, a 79% reduction in the number of lakes in the northernmost thermal region is projected. This thermal region framework can facilitate the global scaling of lake-research.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15108-z
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Water Resources (Science Area 2017-) Unaffiliated
ISSN:	2041-1723
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	limnology, projection and prediction
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment
Date made live:	06 Mar 2020 11:41 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/527175

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15108-z

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Water Resources (Science Area 2017-)
Unaffiliated

ISSN:

2041-1723

Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:

Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.

Additional Keywords:

limnology, projection and prediction