Ice Cores and Emulation: Learning More About Past Ice Sheet Shapes.

Turner, Fiona; Wilkinson, Richard; Buck, Caitlin; Jones, Julie; Sime, Louise ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9093-7926. 2019 Ice Cores and Emulation: Learning More About Past Ice Sheet Shapes. In: 4th Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting, BAYSM 2018, Warwick; United Kingdom, 2 July 2018 through 3 July 2018. Springer, 175-182.

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Abstract/Summary

Creating more accurate reconstructions of past Antarctic ice sheet shapes allows us to better predict how they will vary in the changing climate and contribute to future sea level changes. In this research, we use expert elicitation to create a subjective prior distribution of the Antarctic ice sheets at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 21Ka. A design of shapes from this distribution will be run through the global climate model HadCM3, providing us with output that we can compare with proxy data to find a better estimate of the ice sheet shape at the LGM.

Item Type:	Publication - Conference Item (Paper)
Additional Keywords:	Antarctic ice sheets, expert elicitation, principal component analysis, subjective Bayesian methods
Date made live:	06 Jan 2020 10:56 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/526353

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