Progressing emergent constraints on future climate change

Hall, Alex; Cox, Peter; Huntingford, Chris ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5941-7770; Klein, Stephen. 2019 Progressing emergent constraints on future climate change. Nature Climate Change, 9 (4). 269-278. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0436-6

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Abstract/Summary

In recent years, an evaluation technique for Earth System Models (ESMs) has arisen—emergent constraints (ECs)—which rely on strong statistical relationships between aspects of current climate and future change across an ESM ensemble. Combining the EC relationship with observations could reduce uncertainty surrounding future change. Here, we articulate a framework to assess ECs, and provide indicators whereby a proposed EC may move from a strong statistical relationship to confirmation. The primary indicators are verified mechanisms and out-of-sample testing. Confirmed ECs have the potential to improve ESMs by focusing attention on the variables most relevant to climate projections. Looking forward, there may be undiscovered ECs for extremes and teleconnections, and ECs may help identify climate system tipping points.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0436-6
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Hydro-climate Risks (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	1758-678X
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Publisher link (see Related URLs) provides a read-only full-text copy of the published paper.
Additional Keywords:	climate and Earth system modelling, projection and prediction
NORA Subject Terms:	Meteorology and Climatology
Related URLs:	Publisher
Date made live:	27 Mar 2019 16:28 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/522698

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