Transition pathways to sustainability in greater than 2°C climate futures of Europe

Frantzeskaki, Niki; Hölscher, Katharina; Holman, Ian P.; Pedde, Simona; Jaeger, Jill; Kok, Kasper; Harrison, Paula A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9873-3338. 2019 Transition pathways to sustainability in greater than 2°C climate futures of Europe. Regional Environmental Change, 19 (3). 777-789. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01475-x

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Abstract/Summary

The complex challenges arising from climate change that exceeds the +2 °C target (termed ‘high-end climate change’) in Europe require new integrative responses to support transformations to a more sustainable future. We present a novel methodology that combines transition management and high-end climate and socioeconomic change scenarios to identify pathways and move Europe closer to sustainability. Eighteen pathways have been co-created with stakeholders through a participatory process. The pathways support Europe in moving towards a desirable future vision, through top-down and bottom-up actions that lower greenhouse gas emissions, reduce impacts of and vulnerabilities to climate and socioeconomic changes and enhance well-being. Analysis shows that the pathways that are robust to future scenario uncertainty are those that shift Europe towards sustainable lifestyles, support and strengthen good governance for sustainability and promote adaptive resource management for water, agriculture and energy. The methodology can support the design of the urgent actions needed to meet the requirements of the Paris Agreement and to transform Europe, in preparation for an uncertain future.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01475-x
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Soils and Land Use (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	1436-3798
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	climate change, pathways, adaptation, mitigation, transformation, transition management
NORA Subject Terms:	Earth Sciences Ecology and Environment Agriculture and Soil Science Meteorology and Climatology
Date made live:	25 Feb 2019 15:31 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/522341

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