Holocene El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability reflected in subtropical Australian precipitation

Barr, C.; Tibby, J.; Leng, M.J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1115-5166; Tyler, J.J.; Henderson, A.C.G.; Overpeck, J.T.; Simpson, G.L.; Cole, J.E.; Phipps, S.J.; Marshall, J.C.; McGregor, G.B.; Hua, Q.; McRobie, F.H.. 2019 Holocene El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability reflected in subtropical Australian precipitation. Scientific Reports, 9 (1), 1627. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-38626-3

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-38626-3

Abstract/Summary

The La Niña and El Niño phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have major impacts on regional rainfall patterns around the globe, with substantial environmental, societal and economic implications. Long-term perspectives on ENSO behaviour, under changing background conditions, are essential to anticipating how ENSO phases may respond under future climate scenarios. Here, we derive a 7700-year, quantitative precipitation record using carbon isotope ratios from a single species of leaf preserved in lake sediments from subtropical eastern Australia. We find a generally wet (more La Niña-like) mid-Holocene that shifted towards drier and more variable climates after 3200 cal. yr BP, primarily driven by increasing frequency and strength of the El Niño phase. Climate model simulations implicate a progressive orbitally-driven weakening of the Pacific Walker Circulation as contributing to this change. At centennial scales, high rainfall characterised the Little Ice Age (~1450–1850 CE) in subtropical eastern Australia, contrasting with oceanic proxies that suggest El Niño-like conditions prevail during this period. Our data provide a new western Pacific perspective on Holocene ENSO variability and highlight the need to address ENSO reconstruction with a geographically diverse network of sites to characterise how both ENSO, and its impacts, vary in a changing climate.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-38626-3
ISSN:	2045-2322
Date made live:	15 Feb 2019 14:56 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/522278

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-38626-3

ISSN:

2045-2322

Date made live:

15 Feb 2019 14:56 +0 (UTC)

URI:

https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/522278