Developing a global operational seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS-Seasonal v1.0

Emerton, Rebecca; Zsoter, Ervin; Arnal, Louise; Cloke, Hannah L.; Muraro, Davide; Prudhomme, Christel; Stephens, Elisabeth M.; Salamon, Peter; Pappenberger, Florian. 2018 Developing a global operational seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS-Seasonal v1.0. Geoscientific Model Development, 11 (8). 3327-3346. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3327-2018

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Abstract/Summary

Global overviews of upcoming flood and drought events are key for many applications, including disaster risk reduction initiatives. Seasonal forecasts are designed to provide early indications of such events weeks or even months in advance, but seasonal forecasts for hydrological variables at large or global scales are few and far between. Here, we present the first operational global-scale seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS-Seasonal. Developed as an extension of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), GloFAS-Seasonal couples seasonal meteorological forecasts from ECMWF with a hydrological model to provide openly available probabilistic forecasts of river flow out to 4 months ahead for the global river network. This system has potential benefits not only for disaster risk reduction through early awareness of floods and droughts, but also for water-related sectors such as agriculture and water resources management, in particular for regions where no other forecasting system exists. We describe the key hydro-meteorological components and computational framework of GloFAS-Seasonal, alongside the forecast products available, before discussing initial evaluation results and next steps.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3327-2018
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	UKCEH Fellows
ISSN:	1991-959X
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
NORA Subject Terms:	Hydrology Meteorology and Climatology
Date made live:	22 Aug 2018 10:35 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/520802

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