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Combined impacts of future land-use and climate stressors on water resources and quality in groundwater and surface waterbodies of the upper Thames river basin, UK

Hutchins, M.G.; Abesser, C.; Prudhomme, C.; Elliott, J.A.; Bloomfield, J.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5730-1723; Mansour, M.M.; Hitt, O.E.. 2018 Combined impacts of future land-use and climate stressors on water resources and quality in groundwater and surface waterbodies of the upper Thames river basin, UK. Science of the Total Environment, 631-632. 962-986. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.052

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Abstract/Summary

It is widely acknowledged that waterbodies are becoming increasingly affected by a wide range of drivers of change arising from human activity. To illustrate how this can be quantified a linked modelling approach was applied in the Thames river basin in southern UK. Changes to river flows, water temperature, river and reservoir quality were predicted under three contrasting future “storylines”; one an extension of present day rates of economic development, the others representing more extreme and less sustainable visions. Modelling revealed that lower baseflow conditions will arise under all storylines. For the less extreme storyline river water quality is likely to deteriorate but reservoir quality will improve slightly. The two more extreme futures could not be supported by current management strategies to meet water demand. To satisfy these scenarios, transfer of river water from outside the Thames river basin would be necessary. Consequently, some improvement over present day water quality in the river may be seen, and for most indicators conditions would be better than in the less extreme storyline. However, because phosphorus concentrations will rise, the invoked changes in water demand management would not be of a form suitable to prevent a marked deterioration in reservoir water quality.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.052
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas: Pollution (Science Area 2017-)
Water Resources (Science Area 2017-)
UKCEH Fellows
ISSN: 0048-9697
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords: aquifer, river, reservoir, climate change, scenarios, process-based model, groundwaterBGS, groundwater, surface water interaction, groundwater modelling
NORA Subject Terms: Ecology and Environment
Date made live: 29 Mar 2018 11:42 +0 (UTC)
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/519579

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