Analysis of parameters of CMEs available in near real-time for operational space weather forecasting

Kelly, Gemma. 2015 Analysis of parameters of CMEs available in near real-time for operational space weather forecasting. [Speech] In: IUGG 26th General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, 22 June - 2 July 2015. (Unpublished)

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Official URL: https://www.iugg2015prague.com/

Abstract/Summary

Forecasts of geomagnetic activity are vital for helping to protect vulnerable technological infrastructure. However, we have relatively little data with which to make a decision about the level of expected activity. Whilst advances in modelling techniques (for example, the WSA-ENLIL model) and increases in data availability are helping, there is still a knowledge gap and forecasts still depend heavily on the judgement of the forecaster. The aim of this work is to help forecasters put coronal mass ejections (CMEs) into context, based on past events, in a straightforward manner. We have analysed CMEs during 12 years from Jan 1998 to Dec 2009, focusing on the data available at the time for forecasting. CMEs which were identified as having a potential to impact the Earth are then assessed and correlated with any resulting geomagnetic activity. Here we present statistics of Earth-directed CMEs and their likelihood to cause geomagnetic storms based on near-real time data. We review parameters including CME velocity, source location and associated flares and filament eruptions, and compare our results with other related studies.