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Ecological resilience in lakes and the conjunction fallacy

Spears, Bryan M.; Futter, Martyn N.; Jeppesen, Erik; Huser, Brian J.; Ives, Stephen; Davidson, Thomas A.; Adrian, Rita; Angeler, David G.; Burthe, Sarah J.; Carvalho, Laurence; Daunt, Francis; Gsell, Alena S.; Hessen, Dag O.; Janssen, Annette B.G.; Mackay, Eleanor B.; May, Linda; Moorhouse, Heather; Olsen, Saara; Søndergaard, Martin; Woods, Helen; Thackeray, Stephen J.. 2017 Ecological resilience in lakes and the conjunction fallacy. Nature Ecology & Evolution, 1 (11). 1616-1624. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-017-0333-1

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Abstract/Summary

There is a pressing need to apply stability and resilience theory to environmental management to restore degraded ecosystems effectively and to mitigate the effects of impending environmental change. Lakes represent excellent model case studies in this respect and have been used widely to demonstrate theories of ecological stability and resilience that are needed to underpin preventative management approaches. However, we argue that this approach is not yet fully developed because the pursuit of empirical evidence to underpin such theoretically grounded management continues in the absence of an objective probability framework. This has blurred the lines between intuitive logic (based on the elementary principles of probability) and extensional logic (based on assumption and belief) in this field.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-017-0333-1
CEH Sections/Science Areas: Biodiversity (Science Area 2017-)
Water Resources (Science Area 2017-)
Unaffiliated
ISSN: 2397-334X
Additional Keywords: ecology, ecosystem ecology
NORA Subject Terms: Ecology and Environment
Date made live: 10 Jan 2018 16:32 +0 (UTC)
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/518918

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