Trimingham Erosion Project: can next decades coastal erosion rates be more accurately assessed?

Payo Garcia, Andres; Wood, Benjamin; Kessler, Holger; Lee, Jonathan; Burke, Helen; Barkwith, Andy; Pennington, Catherine; Hobbs, Peter; Rees, John; Ellis, Mike; Gatliff, Robert. 2017 Trimingham Erosion Project: can next decades coastal erosion rates be more accurately assessed? [Speech] In: Working meeting. British Geological Survey. (Unpublished)

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Abstract/Summary

On the 28/03/2017 BGS was contacted by the Environment Agency (Kellie Fisher , FCRM Senior Advisor – Norfolk, Coastal Partnerships & Strategic Overview Team East Anglia Area) to investigate if erosion rates at Trimingham can be more accurately assessed?. Overall erosion rates are relatively consistent when averaged over the years, at any one point along the Trimingham coast there are periods of higher than usual rates of erosion followed by periods of relative stability. This makes erosion rate prediction particularly difficult. Report data suggests that between 1966 and 1985 the cliff eroded between 1.5-2.5 metres per year. Historic mapping data suggests between 50 and 60 metres of erosion over a period of 100 years, which would indicate an erosion rate between 0.5-0.6 metres per year. Shoreline Management Plan mapping indicates that 75-150 metres of erosion could be expected over the next 100 years (0.75-1.5 metres per year). These figures highlight the difficulties in predicting accurate erosion rates. On the 31/03/2017 BGS coastal modellers, Andres Payo and Andrew Barkwith discussed over the phone with Kellie Fisher whether BGS could provide additional evidences to narrow down the expected future erosion rates at Trimingham for the different SMP epochs (0-20, 20- 50, 50-100 years from now). This document summarizes the activities that BGS has done, to date 17/09/2017, as part of our National Capabilities to address this issue.