CONFIDENCE: dealing with uncertainties relevant for decision making

In nuclear emergency management and long-term rehabilitation, dealing with uncertain information is an intrinsic problem for decision making. Uncertain information related to, for instance, incomplete data on the source term and the prevailing weather can result in dose assessments that differ dramatically from reality. Uncertainty is different at various stages of an emergency, which typically can be subdivided into a pre-/release, post-release and the long-term recovery phases. The recently funded CONFIDENCE project focuses on reducing uncertainties in the release and the post-release phases, the latter including the transition between the short-term post-release and recovery phases (e.g. the first year(s)). However, decisions taken relatively early after an emergency affect long-term recovery and hence robust long-term predictions need to be made during these early phases. CONFIDENCE brings together expertise from all four Radiation Protection Platforms and Social Sciences and Humanities, such that we can address the scientific challenges associated with model uncertainties and improve radioecological predictions and emergency management (NERIS, ALLIANCE), situation awareness and monitoring strategies (EURADOS), risk estimation in the early phase (MELODI), decision making and strategy development at local and national levels (NERIS) including social and ethical aspects (Social Sciences and Humanities). This paper provides an overview of the CONFIDENCE project on uncertainty handling and management and focuses on our radioecological work package.