nerc.ac.uk

Adaptive and plastic responses of Quercus petraea populations to climate across Europe

Saenz-Romero, Cuauhtemoc; Lamy, Jean-Baptiste; Ducousso, Alexis; Musch, Brigitte; Ehrenmann, François; Delzon, Sylvain; Cavers, Stephen; Chalupka, Władysław; Dagdas, Said; Hansen, Jon Kehlet; Lee, Steve J.; Liesebach, Mirko; Rau, Hans-Martin; Psomas, Achilleas; Schneck, Volker; Steiner, Wilfried; Zimmerman, Niklaus E.; Kremer, Antoine. 2017 Adaptive and plastic responses of Quercus petraea populations to climate across Europe. Global Change Biology, 23 (7). 2831-2847. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13576

Before downloading, please read NORA policies.
[img] Text
N515646PP.pdf - Accepted Version
Restricted to NORA staff only until 25 January 2018.

Download (1MB)

Abstract/Summary

How temperate forests will respond to climate change is uncertain; projections range from severe decline to increased growth. We conducted field tests of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), a widespread keystone European forest tree species, including more than 150,000 trees sourced from 116 geographically diverse populations. The tests were planted on 23 field sites in six European countries, in order to expose them to a wide range of climates, including sites reflecting future warmer and drier climates. By assessing tree height and survival, our objectives were twofold: (1) to identify the source of differential population responses to climate (genetic differentiation due to past divergent climatic selection versus plastic responses to ongoing climate change), (2) to explore which climatic variables (temperature or precipitation) trigger the population responses. Tree growth and survival were modeled for contemporary climate and then projected using data from four regional climate models for years 2071-2100, using two greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios each. Overall results indicated a moderate response of tree height and survival to climate variation, with changes in dryness (either annual or during the growing season) explaining the major part of the response. Whilst, on average, populations exhibited local adaptation, there was significant clinal population differentiation for height growth with winter temperature at the site of origin. The most moderate climate model (HIRHAM5-EC; rcp4.5) predicted minor decreases in height and survival, whilst the most extreme model (CCLM4-GEM2-ES; rcp8.5) predicted large decreases in survival and growth for southern and southeastern edge populations. Other non-marginal populations with continental climates were predicted to be severely and negatively affected, while populations at the contemporary northern limit (colder and humid maritime regions) will probably not show large changes in growth and survival in response to climate change.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13576
CEH Sections/Science Areas: Watt
ISSN: 1354-1013
Additional Keywords: seed sourcing, forest genetic resources, forest management, oaks, Quercus petraea, climatic change, climatic transfer distance, mixed model, survival, tree growth
NORA Subject Terms: Ecology and Environment
Biology and Microbiology
Date made live: 22 Dec 2016 14:47 +0 (UTC)
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/515646

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

Document Downloads

Downloads for past 30 days

Downloads per month over past year

More statistics for this item...