The rogue nature of hiatuses in a global warming climate

Sévellec, F.; Sinha, B.; Skliris, N.. 2016 The rogue nature of hiatuses in a global warming climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (15). 8169-8177.

Before downloading, please read NORA policies.
Text (Open Access paper)
grl54755.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.

Download (3MB) | Preview


The nature of rogue events is their unlikelihood and the recent unpredicted decade-long slowdown in surface warming, the so-called hiatus, may be such an event. However, given decadal variability in climate, global surface temperatures were never expected to increase monotonically with increasing radiative forcing. Here surface air temperature from 20 climate models is analyzed to estimate the historical and future likelihood of hiatuses and “surges” (faster than expected warming), showing that the global hiatus of the early 21st century was extremely unlikely. A novel analysis of future climate scenarios suggests that hiatuses will almost vanish and surges will strongly intensify by 2100 under a “business as usual” scenario. For “CO2 stabilisation” scenarios, hiatus, and surge characteristics revert to typical 1940s values. These results suggest to study the hiatus of the early 21st century and future reoccurrences as rogue events, at the limit of the variability of current climate modelling capability.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):
ISSN: 00948276
Additional Keywords: global warming hiatus; multimodel analysis; global warming surge; probabilistic analysis
Date made live: 05 Oct 2016 13:04 +0 (UTC)

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

Document Downloads

Downloads for past 30 days

Downloads per month over past year

More statistics for this item...