Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels

Thackeray, Stephen J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3274-2706; Henrys, Peter A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4758-1482; Hemming, Deborah; Bell, James R.; Botham, Marc S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5276-1405; Burthe, Sarah ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8871-3432; Helaouet, Pierre; Johns, David G.; Jones, Ian D.; Leech, David I.; Mackay, Eleanor B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5697-7062; Massimino, Dario; Atkinson, Sian; Bacon, Philip J.; Brereton, Tom M.; Carvalho, Laurence; Clutton-Brock, Tim H.; Duck, Callan; Edwards, Martin; Elliott, J. Malcolm; Hall, Stephen J.G.; Harrington, Richard; Pearce-Higgins, James W.; Hoye, Toke T.; Kruuk, Loeske E.B.; Pemberton, Josephine M.; Sparks, Tim H.; Thompson, Paul M.; White, Ian; Winfield, Ian J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9296-5114; Wanless, Sarah ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2788-4606. 2016 Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels. Nature, 535 (7611). 241-245. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18608

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Abstract/Summary

Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5–2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1–14.8 days earlier on average).

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18608
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Parr Pywell Watt
ISSN:	0028-0836
Additional Keywords:	phenology, climate change, match-mismatch, long-term
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment
Date made live:	30 Jun 2016 10:17 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/513903

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