Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects

Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, Matthew; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3764-5331; Lovett, Andrew; Posen, Paulette. 2016 Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects. Journal of Environmental Management, 181. 172-184. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.06.020

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.06.020

Abstract/Summary

We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.06.020
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Rees (from October 2014)
ISSN:	0301-4797
Additional Keywords:	integrated models, land use, agriculture, climate change, water quality, recreation, economics, spatial analysis
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment Agriculture and Soil Science Meteorology and Climatology
Date made live:	29 Jun 2016 09:55 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/513894

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.06.020

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Rees (from October 2014)

ISSN:

0301-4797

Additional Keywords:

integrated models, land use, agriculture, climate change, water quality, recreation, economics, spatial analysis

NORA Subject Terms:

Ecology and Environment
Agriculture and Soil Science
Meteorology and Climatology