Unravelling the relative roles of top-down and bottom-up forces driving population change in an oceanic predator

Horswill, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1795-0753; Ratcliffe, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3375-2431; Green, J.A.; Phillips, R.A.; Trathan, P.N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6673-9930; Matthiopoulos, J.. 2016 Unravelling the relative roles of top-down and bottom-up forces driving population change in an oceanic predator. Ecology, 97 (8). 1919-1928. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.1452

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ecy.1452

Abstract/Summary

In the open ocean ecosystem, climate and anthropogenic changes have driven biological change at both ends of the food chain. Understanding how the population dynamics of pelagic predators are simultaneously influenced by nutrient-driven processes acting from the “bottom-up” and predator-driven processes acting from the “top-down” is therefore considered an urgent task. Using a state-space demographic model, we evaluated the population trajectory of an oceanic predator, the macaroni penguin (Eudyptes chrysolophus), and numerically assessed the relative importance of bottom-up and top-down drivers acting through different demographic rates. The population trajectory was considerably more sensitive to changes in top-down control of survival compared to bottom-up control of survival or productivity. This study integrates a unique set of demographic and covariate data and highlights the benefits of using a single estimation framework to examine the links between covariates, demographic rates and population dynamics

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.1452
Programmes:	BAS Programmes > BAS Programmes 2015 > Ecosystems
ISSN:	00129658
Additional Keywords:	density dependence, El Nino Southern Oscillation, macaroni penguin, Monte Carlo Markov Chain, population model, predation, seabird, sea surface temperature, stochastic variable selection
Date made live:	17 May 2016 10:36 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/513648

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.1452

Programmes:

BAS Programmes > BAS Programmes 2015 > Ecosystems

ISSN:

00129658

Additional Keywords:

density dependence, El Nino Southern Oscillation, macaroni penguin, Monte Carlo Markov Chain, population model, predation, seabird, sea surface temperature, stochastic variable selection

Date made live:

17 May 2016 10:36 +0 (UTC)

URI:

https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/513648