Modelling the effect of temperature on the seasonal population dynamics of temperate mosquitoes

Ewing, D.A.; Cobbold, C.A.; Purse, B.V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5140-2710; Nunn, M.A.; White, S.M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3192-9969. 2016 Modelling the effect of temperature on the seasonal population dynamics of temperate mosquitoes. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 400. 65-79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.04.008

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Abstract/Summary

Mosquito-borne diseases cause substantial mortality and morbidity worldwide. These impacts are widely predicted to increase as temperatures warm and extreme precipitation events become more frequent, since mosquito biology and disease ecology are strongly linked to environmental conditions. However, direct evidence linking environmental change to changes in mosquito-borne disease is rare, and the ecological mechanisms that may underpin such changes are poorly understood. Environmental drivers, such as temperature, can have non-linear, opposing impacts on the demographic rates of different mosquito life cycle stages. As such, model frameworks that can deal with fluctuations in temperature explicitly are required to predict seasonal mosquito abundance, on which the intensity and persistence of disease transmission under different environmental scenarios depends. We present a novel, temperature-dependent, delay-differential equation model, which incorporates diapause and the differential effects of temperature on the duration and mortality of each life stage and demonstrates the sensitivity of seasonal abundance patterns to inter- and intra-annual changes in temperature. Likely changes in seasonal abundance and exposure to mosquitoes under projected changes in UK temperatures are presented, showing an increase in peak vector abundance with warming that potentially increases the risk of disease outbreaks.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.04.008
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	UKCEH Fellows Pywell Reynard
ISSN:	0022-5193
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	Culex pipiens, delay-differential equation, vector modelling, stage-structured modelling, climate change
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment Mathematics
Date made live:	18 Apr 2016 11:09 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/513459

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