Characterizing uncertainty of the hydrologic impacts of climate change

Clark, Martyn P.; Wilby, Robert L.; Gutmann, Ethan D.; Vano, Julie A.; Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu; Wood, Andrew W.; Fowler, Hayley J.; Prudhomme, Christel; Arnold, Jeffrey R.; Brekke, Levi D.. 2016 Characterizing uncertainty of the hydrologic impacts of climate change. Current Climate Change Reports, 2 (2). 55-64. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0034-x

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0034-x

Abstract/Summary

The high climate sensitivity of hydrologic systems, the importance of those systems to society, and the imprecise nature of future climate projections all motivate interest in characterizing uncertainty in the hydrologic impacts of climate change. We discuss recent research that exposes important sources of uncertainty that are commonly neglected by the water management community, especially, uncertainties associated with internal climate system variability, and hydrologic modeling. We also discuss research exposing several issues with widely used climate downscaling methods. We propose that progress can be made following parallel paths: first, by explicitly characterizing the uncertainties throughout the modeling process (rather than using an ad hoc “ensemble of opportunity”) and second, by reducing uncertainties through developing criteria for excluding poor methods/models, as well as with targeted research to improve modeling capabilities. We argue that such research to reveal, reduce, and represent uncertainties is essential to establish a defensible range of quantitative hydrologic storylines of climate change impacts.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0034-x
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Rees (from October 2014)
ISSN:	2198-6061
Additional Keywords:	climate change, hydrologic impacts, uncertainty
NORA Subject Terms:	Hydrology Meteorology and Climatology
Date made live:	06 Apr 2016 16:15 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/512992

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0034-x

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Rees (from October 2014)

ISSN:

2198-6061

Additional Keywords:

climate change, hydrologic impacts, uncertainty

NORA Subject Terms:

Hydrology
Meteorology and Climatology