Impacts of climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction on phytoplankton in the River Thames (UK)

Bussi, Gianbattista; Whitehead, Paul G.; Bowes, Michael J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0673-1934; Read, Daniel S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8546-5154; Prudhomme, Christel; Dadson, Simon J.. 2016 Impacts of climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction on phytoplankton in the River Thames (UK). Science of the Total Environment, 572. 1507-1519. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.02.109

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.02.109

Abstract/Summary

Potential increases of phytoplankton concentrations in river systems due to global warming and changing climate could pose a serious threat to the anthropogenic use of surface waters. Nevertheless, the extent of the effect of climatic alterations on phytoplankton concentrations in river systems has not yet been analysed in detail. In this study, we assess the impact of a change in precipitation and temperature on river phytoplankton concentration by means of a physically-based model. A scenario-neutral methodology has been employed to evaluate the effects of climate alterations on flow, phosphorus concentration and phytoplankton concentration of the River Thames (southern England). In particular, five groups of phytoplankton are considered, representing a range of size classes and pigment phenotypes, under three different land-use/land-management scenarios to assess their impact on phytoplankton population levels. The model results are evaluated within the framework of future climate projections, using the UK Climate Projections 09 (UKCP09) for the 2030s. The results of the model demonstrate that an increase in average phytoplankton concentration due to climate change is highly likely to occur, with the magnitude varying depending on the location along the River Thames. Cyanobacteria show significant increases under future climate change and land use change. An expansion of intensive agriculture accentuates the growth in phytoplankton, especially in the upper reaches of the River Thames. However, an optimal phosphorus removal mitigation strategy, which combines reduction of fertiliser application and phosphorus removal from wastewater, can help to reduce this increase in phytoplankton concentration, and in some cases, compensate for the effect of rising temperature.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.02.109
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Rees (from October 2014) Acreman
ISSN:	0048-9697
Additional Keywords:	phytoplankton modelling, climate change, land use change, river water quality, River Thames, scenario-neutral approach
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment
Date made live:	21 Mar 2016 12:12 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/512986

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.02.109

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Rees (from October 2014)
Acreman

ISSN:

0048-9697

Additional Keywords:

phytoplankton modelling, climate change, land use change, river water quality, River Thames, scenario-neutral approach

NORA Subject Terms:

Ecology and Environment