Flood inundation uncertainty: the case of a 0.5% annual probability flood event

Aging coastal defences around the UK are challenging managers to redesign schemes to be resilient to extreme events and climate change, be cost-effective, and have minimal or beneficial environmental impact. To enable effective design, reduced uncertainty in the assessment of flood risk due to natural variability within the coastal forcing is required to focus on conditions that pose highest threat. The typical UK standard of protection for coastal defences is to withstand a 0.5% annual probability event, historically also known as a 1 in 200 year return period event. However, joint wave-water level probability curves provide a range of conditions that meet this criterion. We examine the Dungeness and Romney Marsh coastal zone, a region of high value in terms of habitat and energy assets, to quantify the uncertainty in flood depth and extent generated by a 0.5% probability event, and to explore which combinations of wave and water levels generate the greatest threat.