Long-range forecasts of UK winter hydrology

Svensson, C.; Brookshaw, A.; Scaife, A.A.; Bell, V.A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0792-5650; Mackay, J.D.; Jackson, C.R.; Hannaford, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5256-3310; Davies, H.N.; Arribas, A.; Stanley, S.. 2015 Long-range forecasts of UK winter hydrology. Environmental Research Letters, 10 (6), 064006. 8, pp. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064006

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Abstract/Summary

Seasonal river flow forecasts are beneficial for planning agricultural activities, river navigation, and for management of reservoirs for public water supply and hydropower generation. In the United Kingdom (UK), skilful seasonal river flow predictions have previously been limited to catchments in lowland (southern and eastern) regions. Here we show that skilful long-range forecasts of winter flows can now be achieved across the whole of the UK. This is due to a remarkable geographical complementarity between the regional geological and meteorological sources of predictability for river flows. Forecast skill derives from the hydrogeological memory of antecedent conditions in southern and eastern parts of the UK and from meteorological predictability in northern and western areas. Specifically, it is the predictions of the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic that provides the skill at the seasonal timescale. In addition, significant levels of skill in predicting the frequency of winter high flow events is demonstrated, which has the potential to allow flood adaptation measures to be put in place.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064006
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Rees (from October 2014) Reynard
ISSN:	1748-9326
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link
Additional Keywords:	seasonal forecast, river flow, groundwater, North Atlantic Oscillation, United Kingdom, GroundwaterBGS, groundwater modelling
NORA Subject Terms:	Earth Sciences Hydrology Meteorology and Climatology
Date made live:	11 Jun 2015 15:57 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/510936

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