Environmental water quantity projections under market-driven and sustainability-driven future scenarios in the Narew basin, Poland

Piniewski, M.; Okruszko, T.; Acreman, M.C.. 2014 Environmental water quantity projections under market-driven and sustainability-driven future scenarios in the Narew basin, Poland [in special issue: Hydrological science for environmental flows] Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3-4). 916-934. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.888068

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.888068

Abstract/Summary

The aim of this article is to assess the impact of four scenarios combining possible changes in climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide, land use and water use by 2050, on the specific set of ecologically relevant flow regime indicators that define environmental flow requirements in a semi-natural river basin in Poland. This aim is presented through a modelling case study using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Indicators show both positive and negative responses to future changes. Warm projections from the IPSL-CM4 global climate model combined with sustainable land- and water-use projections (SuE) produce the most negative changes, while warm and wet projections from the MIROC3.2 model combined with market-driven projections (EcF) gave the most positive changes. Climate change overshadows land- and water-use change in terms of the magnitude of projected flow alterations. The future of environmental water quantity is brighter under the market-driven rather than the sustainability-driven scenario, which shows that sustainability for terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. more forests and grasslands) can be at variance with sustainability for riverine and riparian ecosystems (requiring sufficient amount and proper timing of river flows).

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.888068
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Acreman
ISSN:	0262-6667
Additional Keywords:	environmental flows, SWAT, river ecosystem, climate change, land-use change, future scenarios
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment Hydrology
Date made live:	10 Oct 2014 09:51 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/508568

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.888068

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Acreman

ISSN:

0262-6667

Additional Keywords:

environmental flows, SWAT, river ecosystem, climate change, land-use change, future scenarios

NORA Subject Terms:

Ecology and Environment
Hydrology