Climate-induced changes in river flow regimes will alter future bird distributions

Royan, Alexander; Prudhomme, Christel; Hannah, David M.; Reynolds, S. James; Noble, David G.; Sadler, Jonathan P.. 2015 Climate-induced changes in river flow regimes will alter future bird distributions. Ecosphere, 6 (4), 50.

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Anthropogenic forcing of the climate is causing an intensification of the global water cycle, leading to an increase in the frequency and magnitude of floods and droughts. River flow shapes the ecology of riverine ecosystems and climate-driven changes in river flows are predicted to have severe consequences for riverine species, across all levels of trophic organization. However, understanding species' responses to variation in flow is limited through a lack of quantitative modelling of hydroecological interactions. Here, we construct a Bioclimatic Envelope Model (BEM) ensemble based on a suite of plausible future flow scenarios to show how predicted alterations in flow regimes may alter the distribution of a predatory riverine species, the White-throated Dipper (Cinclus cinclus). Models predicted a gradual diminution of dipper probability of occurrence between present day and 2098. This decline was most rapid in western areas of Great Britain and was principally driven by a projected decrease in flow magnitude and variability around low flows. Climate-induced changes in river flow may, therefore, represent a previously unidentified mechanism by which climate change may mediate range shifts in birds and other riverine biota.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas: Rees (from October 2014)
ISSN: 2150-8925
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: Open Access paper - Official URL link provides full text
Additional Keywords: avian ecology, biogeography, climate change, hydrology, riparian ecology, river birds, river flows, spatial analysis
NORA Subject Terms: Ecology and Environment
Date made live: 28 Apr 2015 10:55 +0 (UTC)

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