Inventory and review of quantitative models for spread of plant pests for use in pest risk assessment for the EU territory

Bullock, James; Chapman, Daniel; Hooftman, Danny; White, Steven. 2014 Inventory and review of quantitative models for spread of plant pests for use in pest risk assessment for the EU territory. [Keynote] In: Joint EFSA-EPPO Workshop on ‘Data collection and information sharing in plant health’, Parma, Italy, 1-3 Apr 2014. (Unpublished)

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Robust modelling tools for predicting the spread and dispersal of plant pests are required for effective risk assessment of the impact of both novel and existing pests in the EU. The ongoing project OC/EFSA/PLH/2012/01 reviews the current state of the art in pest spread modelling to evaluate the fitness of alternative modelling strategies for various aspects of risk assessment. We report on the first phase of this project – an extensive literature review to assess the scientific literature on plant pest spread modelling combined with a cluster analysis of the results of the search to identify groups of model strategies. Using systematic review methodology, we implemented robust and step-wise screening criteria. The final assessment yielded 468 scientific articles describing spatial models of pest spread or dispersal, within which 478 unique models are reported. For clustering, 27 data fields describing each model’s representation of time, space, the pest organism(s) and the host plant(s) were populated. Subsequently multi-variate statistical clustering of the data suggested partitioning the data into eight clusters, or model strategies. We describe the differences among model clusters both in terms of the clustering data and for a number of other data fields characterising the ways in which the models are used. Clusters are significantly differentiated according to the functional and taxonomic groups of the pests and host plants and the ways in which the models were parameterised and analysed. We reveal important deficiencies in current modelling, including a lack of multi-species models, lack of evolutionary models and under-representation of spread driven by multiple pest entry or introduction. We describe how we envisage integrating this analysis in a Decision Support Tool for the assessment of the fitness of the model strategies for pest risk assessments. Such a tool will be of high importance for the EFSA Panel on Plant Health.

Item Type: Publication - Conference Item (Keynote)
Programmes: CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 - 2012 > Biodiversity
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas: Pywell
NORA Subject Terms: Ecology and Environment
Agriculture and Soil Science
Biology and Microbiology
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Date made live: 22 Apr 2014 13:24 +0 (UTC)

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