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Probabilistic impacts of climate change on flood frequency using response surfaces II: Scotland

Kay, A.L.; Crooks, S.M.; Davies, H.N.; Reynard, N.S.. 2014 Probabilistic impacts of climate change on flood frequency using response surfaces II: Scotland. Regional Environmental Change, 14 (3). 1243-1255. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0564-x

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Abstract/Summary

This paper uses a sensitivity framework approach to look at the probabilistic impacts of climate change on 20-year return period flood peaks, by applying a set of typical response surfaces alongside the probabilistic UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) for 10 river-basin regions over Scotland. The first paper of the pair used the same approach for 10 river-basin regions over England and Wales. This paper develops the methodology for Scotland, by first enabling better estimation of the response type of Scottish catchments. Then, as for England and Wales, the potential range of impacts is shown for different types of catchment in each river-basin region in Scotland, and regional average impact ranges are estimated. Results show clear differences in impacts between catchments of different types and between regions. The Argyll and West Highland regions show the highest impacts, while the North-East Scotland region shows the lowest impacts. The overall ranges are generally smaller for Scotland than England and Wales.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0564-x
Programmes: CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 - 2012 > Water > WA Topic 1 - Variability and Change in Water Systems > WA - 1.3 - Model, attribute and predict impacts of climate and land cover change on hydrological and freshwater systems
CEH Sections/Science Areas: Reynard
ISSN: 1436-3798
Additional Keywords: response surfaces, climate change, floods, adaptation, UKCP09
NORA Subject Terms: Hydrology
Date made live: 16 Dec 2013 15:43 +0 (UTC)
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/502209

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