van Oijen, Marcel; Beer, Christian; Cramer, Wolfgang; Rammig, Anja; Reichstein, Markus; Rolinski, Susanne; Soussana, Jean-Francois. 2013 A novel probabilistic risk analysis to determine the vulnerability of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (1), 015032. 7, pp. 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/015032
Abstract
We present a simple method of probabilistic risk analysis for ecosystems. The only requirements are time series — modelled or measured — of environment and ecosystem
variables. Risk is defined as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability.
Vulnerability is the expected difference in ecosystem performance between years with and without hazardous conditions. We show an application to drought risk for net primary productivity of coniferous forests across Europe, for both recent and future climatic
conditions.
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Programmes:
CEH Programmes 2012 > Biogeochemistry
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