The dependence of UK extreme sea levels and storm surges on the North Atlantic Oscillation

Woodworth, P. L.; Flather, R. A.; Williams, J. A.; Wakelin, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2081-2693; Jevrejeva, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9490-4665. 2007 The dependence of UK extreme sea levels and storm surges on the North Atlantic Oscillation. Continental Shelf Research, 27 (7). 935-946. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2006.12.007

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Abstract/Summary

The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in effecting changes in winter extreme high and low waters and storm surges in UK waters has been investigated with the use of a depth-averaged tide+surge numerical model. Spatial patterns of correlation of extreme high and low waters (extreme still water sea levels) with the NAO index are similar to those of median or mean sea level studied previously. Explanations for the similarities, and for differences where they occur, are proposed. Spatial patterns of correlations of extreme high and low and median surge with the NAO index are similar to the corresponding extreme sea-level patterns. Suggestions are made as to which properties of surges (frequency, duration, magnitude) are linked most closely to NAO variability. Several climate models suggest higher (more positive) average values of NAO index during the next 100 years. However, the impact on the UK coastline in terms of increased flood risk should be low (aside from other consequences of climate change such as a global sea-level rise) if the existing relationships between extreme high waters and NAO index are maintained

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2006.12.007
Programmes:	Oceans 2025 > Climate, ocean circulation and sea level
ISSN:	0278-4343
Additional Keywords:	NISCAPR07 HIJ AJWAPR07 OPM2007 AR0708 SEA LEVEL CHANGES EXTREME VALUES STORM SURGES FLOOD FORECASTING CLIMATE CHANGE EUROPEAN COASTS UNITED KINGDOM CLIMATE MODELS RIVER FLOW VARIABILITY PRECIPITATION TRENDS SOUTH SCENARIO ICELAND
NORA Subject Terms:	Marine Sciences
Date made live:	14 Oct 2008 08:58 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/2664

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