Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate?

Merino, Gorka; Barange, Manuel; Blanchard, Julia L.; Harle, James; Holmes, Robert; Allen, Icarus; Allison, Edward H.; Badjeck, Marie Caroline; Dulvy, Nicholas K.; Holt, Jason ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3298-8477; Jennings, Simon; Mullon, Christian; Rodwell, Lynda D.. 2012 Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate? Global Environmental Change, 22 (4). 795-806. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.03.003

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Abstract/Summary

Expansion in the world's human population and economic development will increase future demand for fish products. As global fisheries yield is constrained by ecosystems productivity and management effectiveness, per capita fish consumption can only be maintained or increased if aquaculture makes an increasing contribution to the volume and stability of global fish supplies. Here, we use predictions of changes in global and regional climate (according to IPCC emissions scenario A1B), marine ecosystem and fisheries production estimates from high resolution regional models, human population size estimates from United Nations prospects, fishmeal and oil price estimations, and projections of the technological development in aquaculture feed technology, to investigate the feasibility of sustaining current and increased per capita fish consumption rates in 2050. We conclude that meeting current and larger consumption rates is feasible, despite a growing population and the impacts of climate change on potential fisheries production, but only if fish resources are managed sustainably and the animal feeds industry reduces its reliance on wild fish. Ineffective fisheries management and rising fishmeal prices driven by greater demand could, however, compromise future aquaculture production and the availability of fish products.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.03.003
Programmes:	NOC Programmes > Marine Systems Modelling NOC Programmes
ISSN:	09593780
Additional Keywords:	Global environmental change; Fish production; Fisheries; Aquaculture; Adaptation
NORA Subject Terms:	Marine Sciences
Date made live:	14 Jan 2013 14:36 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/21104

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