Modelling protocol

The modelling protocol outlines the rationale and requirements for assessing the performance of rainfall-runoff models and groundwater models used in the Future Flows and Groundwater Levels project. A selection of measures of fit between observed and modelled river flow or groundwater levels is presented, which focus on different aspects of the flow /groundwater level regime, to quantify model performance under the historic climate. Guidelines are provided for assessment of model performance for the different measures of fit. The measures of fit are also used to quantify differences between flows simulated from observed and Future Flows Climate for the historic period. This assessment shows how well the statistics of the modelled river flow/groundwater level time series are reproduced when using Future Flows Climate. Information for a river catchment or observation borehole used in the project is summarised numerically and graphically on a fact sheet. The fact sheet provides the necessary information for any user of Future Flows Hydrology to assess the overall performance of the hydrological model. The rainfall-runoff and groundwater models simulate flows or groundwater levels under different combinations of climatic conditions and it is likely that future climates will include changes in seasonality of rainfall and more extreme conditions, both wet and dry. Model performance is presented graphically for a range of conditions in the historical records to demonstrate the robustness of the calibrated model parameters during critical hydrological periods of rainfall-runoff/groundwater level response.