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Anthropogenic forcing dominates sea level rise since 1850

Jevrejeva, S.; Grinsted, A.; Moore, J. C.. 2009 Anthropogenic forcing dominates sea level rise since 1850. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L20706. 5, pp. 10.1029/2009GL040216

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Abstract/Summary

The rate of sea level rise and its causes are topics of active debate. Here we use a delayed response statistical model to attribute the past 1000 years of sea level variability to various natural (volcanic and solar radiative) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gases and aerosols) forcings. We show that until 1800 the main drivers of sea level change are volcanic and solar radiative forcings. For the past 200 years sea level rise is mostly associated with anthropogenic factors. Only 4 +/- 1.5 cm (25% of total sea level rise) during the 20th century is attributed to natural forcings, the remaining 14 +/- 1.5 cm are due to a rapid increase in CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Citation: Jevrejeva, S., A. Grinsted, and J. C. Moore (2009), Anthropogenic forcing dominates sea level rise since 1850, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L20706, doi: 10.1029/2009GL040216.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.1029/2009GL040216
Programmes: POL Programmes > Sea-level, bottom pressure and space geodesy
ISSN: 0094-8276
Additional Keywords: LAST MILLENNIUM; OCEAN; CLIMATE
NORA Subject Terms: Marine Sciences
Date made live: 16 Aug 2010 14:54
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/9721

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