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Determining the contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise using data assimilation methods

Arthern, Robert J.; Hindmarsh, Richard C.A.. 2006 Determining the contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise using data assimilation methods. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, A, 364 (1844). 1841-1865. 10.1098/rsta.2006.1801

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Abstract/Summary

The problem of forecasting the future behaviour of the Antarctic ice sheet is considered. We describe a method for optimizing this forecast by combining a model of ice sheet flow with observations. Under certain assumptions, a linearized model of glacial flow can be combined with observations of the thickness change, snow accumulation, and ice-flow, to forecast the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise. Numerical simulations show that this approach can potentially be used to test whether changes observed in Antarctica are consistent with the natural forcing of a stable ice sheet by snowfall fluctuations. To make predictions under less restrictive assumptions, improvements in models of ice flow are needed. Some of the challenges that this prediction problem poses are highlighted, and potentially useful approaches drawn from numerical weather prediction are discussed.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.1098/rsta.2006.1801
Programmes: BAS Programmes > Global Science in the Antarctic Context (2005-2009) > Glacial Retreat in Antarctica and Deglaciation of the Earth System
ISSN: 1364-503X
Format Availability: Electronic, Print
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: Full text not available from this repository
Additional Keywords: Ice sheets ; Mass balance ; Sea level; Krylov methods
NORA Subject Terms: Glaciology
Date made live: 17 Aug 2007 13:55
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/8

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