The impact of climate change on the yield and quality of Saaz hops in the Czech Republic

The impact of climate change on the production and quality of hops Humulus lupulus will depend on future weather conditions in the growing season. Our simulations suggest that hops will be particularly vulnerable to a change in climate. Even with the modest warming so far experienced yields have stagnated and quality declined. Recorded observations show an increase in air temperature which is associated with an earlier onset of hop phenological phases and a shortening of the vegetation period. Simulations using future climate predict a decline in both yields, of up to 7-10%, and alpha-acid content, of up to 13-32%, the latter a major determinant of quality. The concentration of hop cultivation in a comparatively small region in the Czech Republic makes it more vulnerable than if the crop were grown in more areas with different climates. Thus climate change may gradually lead to changes in the regionalization of hop production. Policy assistance may be necessary for the adaptation of the Czech hop growing industry to changed climatic conditions. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.