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A structured approach to the measurement of uncertainty in 3D geological models

Lelliott, Michael; Cave, Mark; Wealthall, Gary. 2009 A structured approach to the measurement of uncertainty in 3D geological models. Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology, 42 (1). 95-105. 10.1144/1470-9236/07-081

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Abstract/Summary

The use of 3D models to view complex and diverse geoscience datasets is now common practice for conceptual model evolution, communication to stakeholders, or for testing hypotheses. When applying these models it is important to recognize that their ability to replicate the true situation is controlled by the data used to generate the model and the model algorithms. For the models to be applied correctly the model uncertainty needs to be identified and, where possible, quantified. A method to quantify the uncertainty associated with geological surfaces in a 3D model is presented and tested. Kernel density smoothing and resampling of borehole locations along with expert–user interaction are utilized to provide an estimate of the uncertainty in a geological surface based on data quality, data density and geological complexity. The method is applied to a 3D geological model of shallow superficial deposits, where a sequence of river terrace gravels and alluvial deposits overlie mudstone bedrock. Outcomes indicate that the uncertainty model predictions match well with expert judgement.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.1144/1470-9236/07-081
Programmes: BGS Programmes 2008 > Environment and Health
ISSN: 0481-2085
Additional Keywords: Digital data, Geological modeling
NORA Subject Terms: Earth Sciences
Date made live: 15 Apr 2009 15:03
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/6959

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