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Changing coastlines: data assimilation for morphodynamic prediction and predictability

Dance, Sarah H.; Scott, Tania R.; Baines, Michael J.; Lawless, Amos S.; Mason, David C.; Nichols, Nancy K.; Proctor, Roger; Smith, Polly J.; Swelby, Peter K.. 2008 Changing coastlines: data assimilation for morphodynamic prediction and predictability. In: PECS 2008: Physics of Estuaries and Coastal Seas, Liverpool, UK, 25-29 August 2008. Liverpool, 75-98.

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Abstract/Summary

Operational coastal flood forecasting is limited near-shore by lack of knowledge of evolving bathymetry. Obtaining a full bathymetric survey can be time-consuming and expensive, and is not generally possible just prior to a storm event. A more attractive option may be to use a coastal area morphodynamic model with data assimilation to maintain up-to-date model bathymetry in anticipation of such an event. Data assimilation provides a means to combine model predictions with observations to give more accurate forecasts. It also enables uncertainties in the forecasts to be calculated. Predictions of future bathymetry with specified uncertainty would be useful for coastal flood risk management purposes. In this paper we describe the application of data assimilation techniques to coastal area morphodynamic modeling. Two study sites are considered: the Dee estuary and Morecambe Bay.

Item Type: Publication - Conference Item (Paper)
Programmes: Oceans 2025 > Integration of sustained observations
Additional Keywords: COASTAL MORPHODYNAMIC MODELLING; DATA ASSIMILATION; DEE ESTUARY; MORECAMBE BAY
NORA Subject Terms: Marine Sciences
Date made live: 16 Mar 2009 11:57
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/6482

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