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Relative sea-level trends in New York City during the past 1500 years

Kemp, Andrew C.; Hill, Troy D.; Vane, Christopher H.; Cahill, Niamh; Orton, Philip M.; Talke, Stefan A.; Parnell, Andrew C.; Sanborn, Kelsey; Hartig, Ellen K.. 2017 Relative sea-level trends in New York City during the past 1500 years. The Holocene, 27 (8). 1169-1186. 10.1177/0959683616683263

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Abstract/Summary

New York City (NYC) is threatened by 21st-century relative sea-level (RSL) rise because it will experience a trend that exceeds the global mean and has high concentrations of low-lying infrastructure and socioeconomic activity. To provide a long-term context for anticipated trends, we reconstructed RSL change during the past ~1500 years using a core of salt-marsh sediment from Pelham Bay in The Bronx. Foraminifera and bulk-sediment δ13C values were used as sea-level indicators. The history of sediment accumulation was established by radiocarbon dating and recognition of pollution and land-use trends of known age in down-core elemental, isotopic, and pollen profiles. The reconstruction was generated within a Bayesian hierarchical model to accommodate multiple proxies and to provide a unified statistical framework for quantifying uncertainty. We show that RSL in NYC rose by ~1.70 m since ~575 CE (including ~0.38 m since 1850 CE). The rate of RSL rise increased markedly at 1812–1913 CE from ~1.0 to ~2.5 mm/yr, which coincides with other reconstructions along the US Atlantic coast. We investigated the possible influence of tidal-range change in Long Island Sound on our reconstruction using a regional tidal model, and we demonstrate that this effect was likely small. However, future tidal-range change could exacerbate the impacts of RSL rise in communities bordering Long Island Sound. The current rate of RSL rise is the fastest that NYC has experienced for >1500 years, and its ongoing acceleration suggests that projections of 21st-century local RSL rise will be realized.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.1177/0959683616683263
ISSN: 0959-6836
Date made live: 27 Sep 2017 13:14 +0 (UTC)
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/517939

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