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Assessing the impact of climate change and extreme value uncertainty to extreme flows across Great Britain

Collet, Lila; Beevers, Lindsay; Prudhomme, Christel. 2017 Assessing the impact of climate change and extreme value uncertainty to extreme flows across Great Britain. Water, 9 (2), 103. 16, pp. 10.3390/w9020103

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Abstract/Summary

Floods are the most common and widely distributed natural risk, causing over £1 billion of damage per year in the UK as a result of recent events. Climatic projections predict an increase in flood risk; it becomes urgent to assess climate change impact on extreme flows, and evaluate uncertainties related to these projections. This paper aims to assess the changes in extreme runoff for the 1:100 year return period across Great Britain as a result of climate change using the Future Flows Hydrology database. The Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) and Generalised Pareto (GP) models are automatically fitted for 11‐member ensemble flow series available for the baseline and the 2080s. The analysis evaluates the uncertainty related to the Extreme Value (EV) and climate model parameters. Results suggest that GP and GEV give similar runoff estimates and uncertainties. From the baseline to the 2080s, increasing estimate and uncertainties is evident in east England. With the GEV the uncertainty attributed to the climate model parameters is greater than for the GP (around 60% and 40% of the total uncertainty, respectively). This shows that when fitting both EV models, the uncertainty related to their parameters has to be accounted for to assess extreme runoffs.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3390/w9020103
CEH Sections: Rees (from October 2014
ISSN: 2073-4441
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords: future flow hydrology, generalised extreme value, generalised Pareto, cascaded uncertainty, perturbed physics model ensemble
NORA Subject Terms: Hydrology
Date made live: 14 Feb 2017 10:58 +0 (UTC)
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/516015

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