nerc.ac.uk

Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects

Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, Matthew; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael; Lovett, Andrew; Posen, Paulette. 2016 Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects. Journal of Environmental Management, 181. 172-184. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.06.020

Before downloading, please read NORA policies.
[img] Text
N513894PP.pdf - Accepted Version
Restricted to NORA staff only until 1 October 2018.
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives 4.0.

Download (1MB)

Abstract/Summary

We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.06.020
CEH Sections: Rees (from October 2014
ISSN: 0301-4797
Additional Keywords: integrated models, land use, agriculture, climate change, water quality, recreation, economics, spatial analysis
NORA Subject Terms: Ecology and Environment
Agriculture and Soil Science
Meteorology and Climatology
Date made live: 29 Jun 2016 09:55 +0 (UTC)
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/513894

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

Document Downloads

Downloads for past 30 days

Downloads per month over past year

More statistics for this item...