Predicting Antarctic climate using climate models
Bracegirdle, Thomas J.; Barrand, Nicholas E.; Kusahara, Kazuya; Wainer, Ilana. 2016 Predicting Antarctic climate using climate models. Antarctic Environments Portal.Full text not available from this repository. (Request a copy)
Climate models are the main tool for making quantitative estimates of how Antarctic climate may change over the 21st century. There is high agreement on some aspects of the predictions provided by models, but improvements in understanding are needed in key components of the Antarctic climate system, such as sea ice and coastal ocean-ice shelf processes. In the near term (on timescales of a few years) the climate change signal is small compared to natural cycles (associated with phenomena such as El Niño), the remote impacts of which on the Antarctic atmosphere are difficult to predict. In the longer term (on multi-decadal timescales) the reliability of climate model predictions is limited by uncertainty over human emissions pathways, the realism of climate models, and feedbacks between other elements of the Earth System (e.g. ice sheets).
|Item Type:||Publication - Article|
|Programmes:||BAS Programmes > BAS Programmes 2015 > Atmosphere, Ice and Climate|
|Additional Keywords:||sea-ice, atmosphere, climate, ice-sheet, ocean|
|Date made live:||01 Jun 2016 12:29|
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