nerc.ac.uk

A trait-based approach for predicting species responses to environmental change from sparse data: how well might terrestrial mammals track climate change?

Santini, Luca; Cornulier, Thomas; Bullock, James M.; Palmer, Stephen C.F.; White, Steven M.; Hodgson, Jenny A.; Bocedi, Greta; Travis, Justin M.J.. 2016 A trait-based approach for predicting species responses to environmental change from sparse data: how well might terrestrial mammals track climate change? Global Change Biology, 22 (7). 2415-2424. 10.1111/gcb.13271

Before downloading, please read NORA policies.
[img]
Preview
Text
N513256JA.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.

Download (564kB) | Preview

Abstract/Summary

Estimating population spread rates across multiple species is vital for projecting biodiversity responses to climate change. A major challenge is to parameterise spread models for many species. We introduce an approach that addresses this challenge, coupling a trait-based analysis with spatial population modelling to project spread rates for 15,000 virtual mammals with life histories that reflect those seen in the real world. Covariances among life-history traits are estimated from an extensive terrestrial mammal dataset using Bayesian inference. We elucidate the relative roles of different life-history traits in driving modelled spread rates, demonstrating that any one alone will be a poor predictor. We also estimate that around 30% of mammal species have potential spread rates slower than the global mean velocity of climate change. This novel trait-space-demographic modelling approach has broad applicability for tackling many key ecological questions for which we have the models but are hindered by data availability.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.1111/gcb.13271
CEH Sections: Pywell
ISSN: 1354-1013
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords: climate change velocity, demographic models, dispersal, integrodifference equations, life-history traits, population spread rate, range shift, rangeShifter, trait space, virtual species
NORA Subject Terms: Ecology and Environment
Mathematics
Date made live: 18 Apr 2016 10:08 +0 (UTC)
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/513256

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

Document Downloads

Downloads for past 30 days

Downloads per month over past year

More statistics for this item...