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Comparison and validation of three versions of a forest wind risk model

Hale, Sophie A.; Gardiner, Barry; Peace, Andrew; Nicoll, Bruce; Taylor, Philip; Pizzirani, Stefania. 2015 Comparison and validation of three versions of a forest wind risk model. Environmental Modelling & Software, 68. 27-41. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.01.016

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Abstract/Summary

Predicting the probability of wind damage in both natural and managed forests is important for understanding forest ecosystem functioning, the environmental impact of storms and for forest risk management. We undertook a thorough validation of three versions of the hybrid-mechanistic wind risk model, ForestGALES, and a statistical logistic regression model, against observed damage in a Scottish upland conifer forest following a major storm. Statistical analysis demonstrated that increasing tree height and local wind speed during the storm were the main factors associated with increased damage levels. All models provided acceptable discrimination between damaged and undamaged forest stands but there were trade-offs between the accuracy of the mechanistic models and model bias. The two versions of the mechanistic model with the lowest bias gave very comparable overall results at the forest scale and could form part of a decision support system for managing forest wind damage risk.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.01.016
CEH Sections: Watt
ISSN: 1364-8152
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link
Additional Keywords: risk modelling, decision support system, wind damage, forest disturbance, mechanistic modelling, validation
NORA Subject Terms: Ecology and Environment
Meteorology and Climatology
Atmospheric Sciences
Botany
Date made live: 26 Mar 2015 16:19 +0 (UTC)
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/510459

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