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Seasonal river flow forecasts for the United Kingdom using persistence and historical analogues

Svensson, Cecilia. 2016 Seasonal river flow forecasts for the United Kingdom using persistence and historical analogues. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61 (1). 19-35. 10.1080/02626667.2014.992788

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Abstract/Summary

Seasonal river flow forecasting methods are currently being developed for country-wide application in the United Kingdom, using several different techniques. In this paper, methods based on persistence and historical flow analogues are presented. New one- and three-month forecasts are made each month using monthly river flows at 93 stations with records at least 30 years long. The method that performs best is selected for each separate month, catchment and forecast duration. The forecasts based on persistence of the previous month’s flow generally outperform the analogues approach, particularly for slowly responding catchments (mainly in the southeast) with large underground water storage in aquifers. Historical analogues make a useful contribution to the forecasts in the northwest of the country. Correlations between hindcasts and observations that exceed 0.23 and are significant at the 5% level for a one-sided test are found for 81% (70%) of the station-month combinations for the one-month (three-month) forecast.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.1080/02626667.2014.992788
CEH Sections: Rees (from October 2014
ISSN: 0262-6667
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: Open Access paper - Official URL link provides full text
Additional Keywords: seasonal forecasting, river flow, persistence, historical analogue, United Kingdom
NORA Subject Terms: Hydrology
Date made live: 03 Feb 2015 11:19 +0 (UTC)
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/508912

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