A reversal of fortunes: climate change ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ in Antarctic Peninsula penguins

Clucas, Gemma V.; Dunn, Michael J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4633-5466; Dyke, Gareth; Emslie, Steven D.; Naveen, Ron; Polito, Michael J.; Pybus, Oliver G.; Rogers, Alex D.; Hart, Tom. 2014 A reversal of fortunes: climate change ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ in Antarctic Peninsula penguins. Scientific Reports, 4, srep05024. 7, pp. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep05024

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep05024

Abstract/Summary

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity. Antarctic ecosystems are no exception. Investigating past species responses to climatic events can distinguish natural from anthropogenic impacts. Climate change produces ‘winners’, species that benefit from these events and ‘losers’, species that decline or become extinct. Using molecular techniques, we assess the demographic history and population structure of Pygoscelis penguins in the Scotia Arc related to climate warming after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). All three pygoscelid penguins responded positively to post-LGM warming by expanding from glacial refugia, with those breeding at higher latitudes expanding most. Northern (Pygoscelis papua papua) and Southern (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) gentoo sub-species likely diverged during the LGM. Comparing historical responses with the literature on current trends, we see Southern gentoo penguins are responding to current warming as they did during post-LGM warming, expanding their range southwards. Conversely, Ade´lie and chinstrap penguins are experiencing a ‘reversal of fortunes’ as they are now declining in the Antarctic Peninsula, the opposite of their response to post-LGM warming. This suggests current climate warming has decoupled historic population responses in the Antarctic Peninsula, favoring generalist gentoo penguins as climate change ‘winners’, while Ade´lie and chinstrap penguins have become climate change ‘losers’. Climate

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1038/srep05024
Programmes:	BAS Programmes > Polar Science for Planet Earth (2009 - ) > Ecosystems
ISSN:	2045-2322
Date made live:	17 Jun 2014 13:38 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/507474

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

https://doi.org/10.1038/srep05024

Programmes:

BAS Programmes > Polar Science for Planet Earth (2009 - ) > Ecosystems

ISSN:

2045-2322

Date made live:

17 Jun 2014 13:38 +0 (UTC)

URI:

https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/507474