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Evaluation of future storm surge risk in East Asia based on state-of-the-art climate change projection

Yasuda, Tomohiro; Nakajo, Sota; Kim, SooYoul; Mase, Hajime; Mori, Nobuhito; Horsburgh, Kevin. 2014 Evaluation of future storm surge risk in East Asia based on state-of-the-art climate change projection. Coastal Engineering, 83. 65-71. 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.10.003

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Abstract/Summary

The present study evaluates future storm surge risk due to tropical cyclones (typhoons) in East Asia. A state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) outputs are employed as the driving force for simulating storm surges associated with the projected changes in climate. The reproducibility of tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics from the GCM in the Northwest Pacific (NWP) is confirmed by comparing with the observed best track data, and future typhoon changes were presented. Storm surge simulation is carried out for East Asia, with the finest nested domain on the Japanese coast. The probability of maximum storm surge heights with specified return periods is determined using extreme value statistics. We show a strong regional dependency on future changes of severe storm surges.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.10.003
ISSN: 03783839
Additional Keywords: Climate change; GCM; Tropical cyclone; Storm surge; Extreme value statistics
Date made live: 04 Feb 2014 16:04 +0 (UTC)
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/504782

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