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A novel probabilistic risk analysis to determine the vulnerability of ecosystems to extreme climatic events

van Oijen, Marcel; Beer, Christian; Cramer, Wolfgang; Rammig, Anja; Reichstein, Markus; Rolinski, Susanne; Soussana, Jean-Francois. 2013 A novel probabilistic risk analysis to determine the vulnerability of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (1), 015032. 7, pp. 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/015032

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Abstract/Summary

We present a simple method of probabilistic risk analysis for ecosystems. The only requirements are time series — modelled or measured — of environment and ecosystem variables. Risk is defined as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability. Vulnerability is the expected difference in ecosystem performance between years with and without hazardous conditions. We show an application to drought risk for net primary productivity of coniferous forests across Europe, for both recent and future climatic conditions.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/015032
Programmes: CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 - 2012 > Biogeochemistry > BGC Topic 2 - Biogeochemistry and Climate System Processes > BGC - 2.4 - Develop model frameworks to predict future impact of environmental drivers ...
CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 - 2012 > Biogeochemistry > BGC Topic 3 - Managing Threats to Environment and Health > BGC - 3.1 - Develop temporally and spatially explicit risk assessment tools ...
CEH Sections: Billett (to November 2013)
ISSN: 1748-9326
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: Open Access paper - Official URL link provides full text
Additional Keywords: carbon cycle, drought, uncertainty, vulnerability
NORA Subject Terms: Earth Sciences
Ecology and Environment
Date made live: 15 Mar 2013 16:47
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/500368

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