Positive feedback between global warming and atmospheric CO2 concentration inferred from past climate change
Scheffer, Martin; Brovkin, Victor; Cox, Peter M.. 2006 Positive feedback between global warming and atmospheric CO2 concentration inferred from past climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L10702. 10.1029/2005GL025044Full text not available from this repository.
There is good evidence that higher global temperatures will promote a rise of greenhouse gas levels, implying a positive feedback which will increase the effect of anthropogenic emissions on global temperatures. However, the magnitude of this effect predicted by the available models remains highly uncertain, due to the accumulation of uncertainties in the processes thought to be involved. Here we present an alternative way of estimating the magnitude of the feedback effect based on reconstructed past changes. Linking this information with the mid-range Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimation of the greenhouse gas effect on temperature we suggest that the feedback of global temperature on atmospheric CO2 will promote warming by an extra 15–78% on a century-scale. This estimate may be conservative as we did not account for synergistic effects of likely temperature moderated increase in other greenhouse gases. Our semi-empirical approach independently supports process based simulations suggesting that feedback may cause a considerable boost in warming.
|Item Type:||Publication - Article|
|Digital Object Identifier (DOI):||10.1029/2005GL025044|
|Programmes:||CEH Programmes pre-2009 publications > Biogeochemistry|
|CEH Sections:||CEH fellows|
|Format Availability:||Electronic, Print|
|Additional Keywords:||Carbon cycling, Modelling|
|NORA Subject Terms:||Atmospheric Sciences|
|Date made live:||02 Jul 2007 08:43|
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