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Flood frequency estimation using a joint probability approach within a Monte Carlo framework

Svensson, Cecilia; Kjeldsen, Thomas R.; Jones, David A.. 2013 Flood frequency estimation using a joint probability approach within a Monte Carlo framework. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1). 8-27. 10.1080/02626667.2012.746780

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Abstract/Summary

Event-based methods are used in flood estimation to obtain the entire flood hydrograph. Previously, such methods adopted in the UK have relied on pre-determined values of the input variables (e.g. rainfall and antecedent conditions) to a rainfall–runoff model, which is expected to result in an output flood of a particular return period. In contrast, this paper presents a method that allows all the input variables to take on values across the full range of their individual distributions. These values are then brought together in all possible combinations as input to an event-based rainfall–runoff model in a Monte Carlo simulation approach. Further, this simulation strategy produces a long string of events (on average 10 per year), where dependencies from one event to the next, as well as between different variables within a single event, are accounted for. Frequency analysis is then applied to the annual maximum peak flows and flow volumes.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.1080/02626667.2012.746780
Programmes: CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 - 2012 > Water
CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 - 2012 > Water > WA Topic 3 - Science for Water Management > WA - 3.1 - Develop next generation methods for river flow frequency estimation and forecasting
CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 - 2012 > Water > WA Topic 3 - Science for Water Management
CEH Sections: Boorman (to September 2014)
CEH fellows
ISSN: 0262-6667
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: NERC has developed NORA to enable users to access research outputs wholly or partially funded by NERC. Copyright and other rights for material on this site are retained by the rights owners. Users should read the terms and conditions of use of this material at http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/policies.html#access This is an Author's Accepted Manuscript of an article published in Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1). 8-27. Copyright IAHS Press. Available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/ 10.1080/02626667.2012.746780
Additional Keywords: flood frequency estimation, joint probability, Monte Carlo simulation, hydrological event modelling, uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, river flow, rainfall, soil moisture deficit, Great Britain
NORA Subject Terms: Hydrology
Date made live: 01 Feb 2013 12:35 +0 (UTC)
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/21200

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