Local estimation of extremal trends in North Sea surge elevations
Butler, A.; Heffernan, J. E.; Flather, R. A.; Tawn, J. A.. 2004 Local estimation of extremal trends in North Sea surge elevations. In: IMA International Conference on Flood Risk Assessment 7th - 8th September 2004. Southend-on-Sea, Institute of Mathematics and its Applications: Institute of Mathematics and its Applications: Southend-on-Sea, 117-126.Full text not available from this repository.
In this paper we use statistical models from extreme value theory to analyse storm surge elevations generated by a 2-dimensional numerical storm surge model for the NE Atlantic. Meteorological forcing is provided by a high quality air pressure hindcast for the period 1955-2000. We use local likelihood methods to analyse temporal trends in simulated extreme surge characteristics in a non parametric fashion, and to compare these trends against trends in observed extreme surge characteristics. The use of nonparametric regression methods to analyse extremal trends in the output from a numerical environmental model apprears to be novel.
|Item Type:||Publication - Book Section|
|Programmes:||POL Programmes > Other|
|Additional Keywords:||STORM SURGES; NORTH SEA; TRENDS; FLOOD FORECASTING|
|NORA Subject Terms:||Marine Sciences|
|Date made live:||15 Oct 2008 10:54|
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