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Local estimation of extremal trends in North Sea surge elevations

Butler, A.; Heffernan, J. E.; Flather, R. A.; Tawn, J. A.. 2004 Local estimation of extremal trends in North Sea surge elevations. In: IMA International Conference on Flood Risk Assessment 7th - 8th September 2004. Southend-on-Sea, Institute of Mathematics and its Applications: Institute of Mathematics and its Applications: Southend-on-Sea, 117-126.

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Abstract/Summary

In this paper we use statistical models from extreme value theory to analyse storm surge elevations generated by a 2-dimensional numerical storm surge model for the NE Atlantic. Meteorological forcing is provided by a high quality air pressure hindcast for the period 1955-2000. We use local likelihood methods to analyse temporal trends in simulated extreme surge characteristics in a non parametric fashion, and to compare these trends against trends in observed extreme surge characteristics. The use of nonparametric regression methods to analyse extremal trends in the output from a numerical environmental model apprears to be novel.

Item Type: Publication - Book Section
Programmes: POL Programmes > Other
ISBN: 0905091175
Additional Keywords: STORM SURGES; NORTH SEA; TRENDS; FLOOD FORECASTING
NORA Subject Terms: Marine Sciences
Date made live: 15 Oct 2008 10:54
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/2070

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