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Future Flows Climate: an ensemble of 1-km climate change projections for hydrological application in Great Britain

Prudhomme, C.; Dadson, S.; Morris, D.; Williamson, J.; Goodsell, G.; Crooks, S.; Boelee, L.; Davies, H.; Buys, G.; Lafon, T.; Watts, G.. 2012 Future Flows Climate: an ensemble of 1-km climate change projections for hydrological application in Great Britain. Earth System Science Data, 4 (1). 143-148. 10.5194/essd-4-143-2012

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Abstract/Summary

The dataset Future Flows Climate was developed as part of the project ''Future Flows and Groundwater Levels'' to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications, and to enable climate change uncertainty and climate variability to be accounted for in the assessment of their possible impacts on the environment. Future Flows Climate is derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE that is part of the basis of UKCP09 and includes projections in available precipitation (water available to hydrological processes after snow and ice storages have been accounted for) and potential evapotranspiration. It corresponds to an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1950 to December 2098, each a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3. Data are provided on a 1-km grid over the HadRM3 land areas at a daily (available precipitation) and monthly (PE) time step as netCDF files. Because systematic biases in temperature and precipitation were found between HadRM3-PPE and gridded temperature and precipitation observations for the 1962–1991 period, a monthly bias correction procedure was undertaken, based on a linear correction for temperature and a quantile-mapping correction (using the gamma distribution) for precipitation followed by a spatial downscaling. Available precipitation was derived from the bias-corrected precipitation and temperature time series using a simple elevation-dependant snow-melt model. Potential evapotranspiration time series were calculated for each month using the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equations and bias-corrected temperature, cloud cover, relative humidity and wind speed from HadRM3-PPE along with latitude of the grid and the day of the year. Future Flows Climate is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. It is the dataset used to generate Future Flows Hydrology, an ensemble of transient projections of daily river flow and monthly groundwater time series for representative river basins and boreholes in Great Britain. DOI:10.5285/bad1514f-119e-44a4-8e1e-442735bb9797

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.5194/essd-4-143-2012
Programmes: CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 - 2012 > Water > WA Topic 1 - Variability and Change in Water Systems > WA - 1.3 - Model, attribute and predict impacts of climate and land cover change on hydrological and freshwater systems
BAS Programmes > Polar Science for Planet Earth (2009 - ) > Climate
CEH Sections: Boorman
Reynard
ISSN: 1866-3508
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited
NORA Subject Terms: Hydrology
Date made live: 19 Nov 2012 10:57
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/20452

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