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Trends in annual and seasonal maxima of daily rainfall and peak river flow

Prosdocimi, Ilaria; Kjeldsen, Thomas R.; Svensson, Cecilia. 2012 Trends in annual and seasonal maxima of daily rainfall and peak river flow. In: Advanced Methods for Flood Estimation in a Variable and Changing Environment, Volos, Greece, 24-26 Oct 2012. (Unpublished)

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Abstract/Summary

With the public perception that climate has been changing in the last decades, more and more doubts are raised regarding the validity of the assumption of stationarity for hydrological processes. In this work we explore, in a descriptive and preliminary way, trends for annual and seasonal maxima in daily rainfall and peak river flow, applying a linear regression model allowing the mean of the distribution to vary with time. Over a longer period (50 years), trends do not seem to be significant, while there is indication of some slight, although not spatially coherent, trends in shorter series (20 years). Particularly in summer, there seem to be little concordance in the direction of trends for rainfall and flow, suggesting that other factors, such as evaporation, land use change, water management practices, etc, affect the river flows. Another concern is whether or not the standard linear regression can cope with extreme records. We discuss these issues and look into possible alternative approaches.

Item Type: Publication - Conference Item (Paper)
Programmes: CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 - 2012 > Water > WA Topic 3 - Science for Water Management > WA - 3.1 - Develop next generation methods for river flow frequency estimation and forecasting
CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 - 2012 > Water > WA Topic 3 - Science for Water Management > WA - 3.2 - Assessment of available water resources in a changing world ...
CEH Sections: Boorman (to September 2014)
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: Presented at a mid-term conference of COST ES0901 ‘FloodFreq’ Action.
Additional Keywords: annual and seasonal maxima, daily rainfall, peak flow, stationarity, trend analysis
NORA Subject Terms: Hydrology
Related URLs:
Date made live: 18 Dec 2012 11:23 +0 (UTC)
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/20248

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