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Large-scale attribution of trend in UK flood flow data

Kjeldsen, T.R.; Svensson, C.; Miller, J.M.. 2012 Large-scale attribution of trend in UK flood flow data. In: British Hydrological Society’s Eleventh National Symposium, Dundee, 9–11 July 2012. British Hydrological Society. (Unpublished)

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Abstract/Summary

The objective of this study is to undertake a preliminary investigation of trend in annual maximum series of peak flood data in the United Kingdom, as a precursor to developing a more complete procedure for non-stationary flood frequency estimation. A fifth of the trends in series that are at least 20 years long are significant at the 5% level (of in total 388 series). Most of the significant trends are positive, and are located in the north and west. The largest positive trends occur for short records in the most recent decades. Trends were also investigated for various subsets of the data, based on different catchment characteristics. There is an indication that the range of trend values observed for urban catchments is larger than the range observed for the rural subset, and that storage of water, whether in lakes and reservoirs or in permeable geology, has an ameliorating effect on trend magnitude.

Item Type: Publication - Conference Item (Paper)
Programmes: CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 onwards > Water > WA Topic 3 - Science for Water Management > WA - 3.1 - Develop next generation methods for river flow frequency estimation and forecasting
CEH Sections: Boorman
NORA Subject Terms: Hydrology
Date made live: 27 Sep 2012 08:44
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/19301

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